The Motivations, Implementation Pathways, and Economic Effects of the U.S. Trade War: An Empirical Study Based on Policy Texts and Trade Data

Abstract

The 2018 U.S.-China trade war, initiated by tariff measures under Sections 301 and 232, represents a pivotal turning point in the evolution of modern protectionism. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the trade war’s motivations, implementation, and economic consequences through a mixed-methods research framework. On the qualitative side, we examine official trade policy texts, executive statements, and related documents to identify economic, political, and strategic drivers behind the tariffs. On the quantitative side, we employ rigorous econometric techniques—including difference-in-differences models, event studies—based on data from UN Comtrade, USITC, BLS, WTO, and OECD. Our empirical findings reveal several key outcomes: significant restructuring of global supply chains, limited but measurable employment gains in certain protected sectors, notable increases in consumer prices, and a broader recalibration of U.S.-China trade and economic relations. This study offers critical insights into how protectionist policies impact domestic economies, global trade dynamics, and the future of international economic governance.