The Impact Mechanism of Population Aging on GDP Growth Rate——A Case Study of Japan

Abstract

Population aging, as a global development trend, has profound implications for sustainable economic development. This study selects Japan, which has a high degree of aging, as a case to reveal the mechanism of action between the proportion of elderly population and GDP growth rate, CPI growth rate, filling the gap in existing research on the correlation paths between aging and macroeconomic indicators and elaborating on the added value. By constructing a dual-dimensional analytical framework and combining correlation analysis models, it is found that the proportion of elderly population in Japan shows a significant negative correlation with GDP growth rate (correlation coefficient -0.68) and CPI growth rate (correlation coefficient -0.61). This indicates that aging suppresses economic growth and price levels through channels such as labor force shrinkage and transformation of consumption demand. This research provides empirical evidence and conclusions for optimizing labor policies in an aging society and balancing supply-demand structures, and can be expanded to multi-country comparative studies in the future to verify the universality of the mechanism and make projections.