Beyond Sequestration: Evaluating Mangrove Restoration through a Net Global Warming Potential Framework

Abstract

As a critical component of blue carbon ecosystems, mangroves have attracted increasing attention under the global climate change agenda. Their unique carbon storage mechanisms encompass both above-ground biomass and substantial soil organic carbon pools. However, most existing studies and policy assessments tend to overlook the emission dynamics of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases such as methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O), which may significantly distort evaluations of their net climate benefits. This study systematically reviews the mechanisms of carbon sequestration and non-CO₂ fluxes in mangrove ecosystems, compares climate and ecological co-benefits under different restoration strategies across regions, and examines the compatibility of current carbon market methodologies and policy instruments. Findings suggest the urgent need for an integrated assessment framework centered on Net Global Warming Potential (Net GWP), which incorporates ecological integrity, biodiversity recovery, and social co-benefits. Such a transition from carbon-centric to climate–ecology-oriented mangrove restoration is essential for achieving genuine mitigation outcomes and long-term ecosystem sustainability.