Defining the Optimal Global Population A Framework Balancing Resource Constraints and Human Flourishing

Abstract

The rapid growth of the global population intensifies the fundamental economic tension of infinite human wants amidst finite resources. This article investigates the concept of an optimal global population, defined not merely as Earth's maximum carrying capacity, but as a size wherein every individual has the potential to achieve a high living standard. The analysis critiques the famous Simon-Ehrlich wager by arguing that apparent short-term resource abundance is an illusion fueled by technological efficiency gains, as explained by the Jevons Paradox and the IPAT equation. Frameworks such as the Solow-Swan model and the Human Development Index (HDI) illustrate how capital dilution and resource strain resulting from overpopulation can erode per capita well-being. Furthermore, an intertemporal social welfare function model indicates that optimal population policy must balance size with individual living standards. Ultimately, while a population size maximizing well-being at a micro-level is theoretically identifiable, an optimal global population is only reached when individual well-being and output per head are maximized.